Straight-Up NFL Picks, Week 10: What to make of a maybe-slumping Buffalo Bills? (2024)

Christian D'Andrea

November 10, 2022 8:01 am ET

Last week’s predictions churned forward with an impressive success rate in a mostly boring week of football. Sure, we may not have seen Aaron Rodgers getting Mon-star’d in Detroit or Josh Allen getting outplayed by Zach Wilson (!), but Week 9 was, for the most part, a fairly standard affair.

Week 10 looks like more of the same, at least on paper. Only four of this week’s 14 games brought any kind of division among our three-man picking crew. It turns out we’re not sure on a possibly Malik Willis-led Tennessee Titans, whatever the Saints and Steelers are cooking up, and the midseason slumps of the Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams.

Week 10 will provide a handful of proving ground moments for teams with Super Bowl aspirations. Can the Bills get right against a 7-1 Minnesota Vikings team? Do the Denver Broncos have enough offense to squeeze past Tennessee and keep their slim playoff hopes alive? Will the Green Bay Packers continue to collapse in upon themselves like a dying star?

Here’s our full lineup of straight-up moneyline picks for Week 10 of the 2022 NFL season.

Game	Christian	Robert	Charles
Falcons at Panthers	Falcons	Falcons	Falcons
Seahawks at Buccaneers	Seahawks	Seahawks	Seahawks
Browns at Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins	Dolphins
Broncos at Titans	Titans	Broncos	Broncos
Lions at Bears	Bears	Bears	Bears
Texans at Giants	Giants	Giants	Giants
Jaguars at Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs	Chiefs
Vikings at Bills	Bills	Vikings	Bills
Saints at Steelers	Steelers	Steelers	Saints
Colts at Raiders	Raiders	Raiders	Raiders
Cardinals at Rams	Rams	Cardinals	Rams
Cowboys at Packers	Cowboys	Cowboys	Cowboys
Chargers at 49ers	49ers	49ers	49ers
Commanders at Eagles	Eagles	Eagles	Eagles



Last week:	10-3	10-3	9-4
Year to date:	*87-48-1*	*82-53-1*	*76-59-1*

And here those pics are in a better-formatted screenshot of our actual picks sheet, which sadly struggles to translate to our editing software.

The * for the Titans depends on Ryan Tannehill starting, which it seems as though he will. Otherwise, I’m gonna have to take a long hard look at that game, which probably still leans toward the home team.

Easiest game to pick: Philadelphia Eagles over the Washington Commanders

Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

My slow recovery from a baffling start in this section continued when Joe Mixon outscored the Carolina Panthers 30-21 on his own. Anyway, look at this garbage franchise.

Hardest favorite to back: Buffalo Bills (-5.5) vs. the Minnesota Vikings

Jamie Germano/USA TODAY Network

A possibly-injured Josh Allen, coming off a two-game stretch in which he’s turned the ball over four times (and had two other fumbles recovered by himself or a teammate), vs. 1 p.m. Kirk Cousins, the recently crowned king of Lutheran church basem*nt drip. The Bills are vulnerable to mid-season swoons; they went 3-5 between Weeks 6 and 14 in 2021.

But Buffalo is coming off a frustrating loss to the New York Jets and in danger of ceding the top spot in the AFC. The Vikings, despite their gaudy record, rank 19th in overall defensive DVOA. They’re on a six-game win streak but none of those have come by more than eight points; their plus-32 point differential lines up more closely with the 5-4 New England Patriots or San Francisco 49ers than the 8-0 Philadelphia Eagles (plus-90).

The Bills could make Minnesota’s 7-1 record look like an illusion in Week 10. Or they could provide the perfect opportunity for the Vikings to prove they’re a very real threat in the NFC. I’m going with the former, even if I’m not sold on the idea.

Last week: 1-0 (1.000)
Season to date: 5-3 (.625)

Upset pick of the week: Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports

The Falcons were a botched fumble recovery away from pulling this off last week. At least they had the decency to cover, but holy moly this section has taken a beating in 2022.

The Seahawks can’t seem to find respect despite a top atop the NFC West — by a full 1.5 games at the team’s halfway mark — and are in the midst of a four-game heater. They brought consistent pressure against Kyler Murray and the Arizona Cardinals with a lineup of four-man fronts. That will give a rising secondary plenty of bodies to cover Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and … Cade Otton? Huh, OK, Cade Otton … while gouging the offensive line that’s made Tom Brady’s age 45 season so uncomfortable.

Geno Smith continues to play like a top five quarterback. When faced with adversity last week via a third quarter pick-six, he responded with back-to-back touchdown drives to effectively seal the game. Rookie Kenneth Walker has been as good as Seattle hoped when it drafted him in the second round, absorbing Rashaad Penny’s touches and averaging 1.31 rushing yards over expected per carry — sixth-best in the NFL.

By their powers combined, and with some help from DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, the Seahawks should be able to cobble together enough points to keep Brady at bay.

Last week: 0-1 (.000)
Season to date: 2-7 (.222)

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